Model Performance
Transparent track record of our prediction accuracy
Overall Performance
Performance by League
| League | Predictions | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 18 | 2 | 11.1% |
| Campeonato Brasileiro Série A | 18 | 5 | 27.8% |
| Championship | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
| Copa Libertadores | 26 | 10 | 38.5% |
| Eredivisie | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| European Championship | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| FIFA World Cup | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| Ligue 1 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% |
| Premier League | 18 | 5 | 27.8% |
| Primeira Liga | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
| Primera Division | 30 | 8 | 26.7% |
| Serie A | 20 | 3 | 15.0% |
| UEFA Champions League | 189 | 117 | 61.9% |
How We Calculate Performance
Accuracy: The percentage of predictions where our recommended bet matched the actual match outcome.
Simulated ROI: If you had bet ₦100 on every recommendation at the odds available at the time, this is your return on investment.
Note: ROI simulation assumes all bets are placed at recorded odds. Actual results may vary due to odds changes, bet timing, and other factors.
Only predictions backed by verified real bookmaker odds count toward the figures above. When a match doesn't have real odds yet, we don't show a recommendation or confidence score for it, and it's excluded here rather than contributing an artificial result.
Our Prediction Model
SportsPred uses a combination of statistical models to generate predictions:
- Elo Rating System (60% weight): Measures team strength over time using historical results
- Recency-Weighted Form/Head-to-Head (30% weight): Recent results and head-to-head history between the two teams
- Poisson Distribution Model (10% weight): Predicts scorelines based on team attack and defense strength
Predictions are only shown when they offer positive expected value (+EV) compared to real bookmaker odds.
⚠️ Past performance does not guarantee future results. Sports betting involves risk. All predictions are for informational and entertainment purposes only. Please bet responsibly.